Elo 排名与晋级概率
晋级概率来自整届赛事 10000 次蒙特卡洛模拟（小组出线 = 进入 32 强淘汰赛）。 点击球队查看 26 人名单 与详细晋级概率。
| # | 球队 | 组 | Elo | 进攻 | 防守 | 出线 | 16强 | 8强 | 4强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸西班牙 | H | 1960 | +1.18 | +1.22 | 91% | 60% | 43% | 31% | 20% | 12.4% |
| 2 | 🇦🇷阿根廷 | J | 1949 | +1.10 | +1.33 | 95% | 65% | 47% | 33% | 21% | 13.0% |
| 3 | 🇫🇷法国 | I | 1936 | +1.05 | +1.14 | 99% | 70% | 44% | 28% | 17% | 9.5% |
| 4 | 🏴英格兰 | L | 1915 | +1.02 | +1.21 | 100% | 68% | 44% | 27% | 16% | 9.7% |
| 5 | 🇲🇦摩洛哥 | C | 1890 | +0.65 | +1.18 | 89% | 51% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 4.0% |
| 6 | 🇧🇷巴西 | C | 1868 | +1.18 | +1.28 | 94% | 61% | 41% | 24% | 14% | 8.2% |
| 7 | 🇯🇵日本 | F | 1862 | +0.84 | +0.89 | 85% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2.3% |
| 8 | 🇨🇴哥伦比亚 | K | 1857 | +0.94 | +1.13 | 86% | 55% | 33% | 17% | 9% | 4.6% |
| 9 | 🇩🇪德国 | E | 1855 | +1.17 | +0.88 | 100% | 63% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5.2% |
| 10 | 🇲🇽墨西哥 | A | 1845 | +0.73 | +0.91 | 99% | 60% | 28% | 12% | 6% | 2.6% |
| 11 | 🇵🇹葡萄牙 | K | 1839 | +1.06 | +1.07 | 78% | 50% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4.1% |
| 12 | 🇳🇱荷兰 | F | 1831 | +1.06 | +0.95 | 87% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 3.2% |
| 13 | 🇦🇺澳大利亚 | D | 1823 | +0.67 | +0.86 | 96% | 54% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1.8% |
| 14 | 🇳🇴挪威 | I | 1812 | +0.79 | +0.77 | 72% | 36% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1.2% |
| 15 | 🇩🇿阿尔及利亚 | J | 1809 | +0.71 | +0.68 | 69% | 32% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0.9% |
| 16 | 🇮🇷伊朗 | G | 1807 | +0.66 | +0.87 | 77% | 42% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1.4% |
| 17 | 🇰🇷韩国 | A | 1801 | +0.64 | +0.77 | 94% | 54% | 23% | 9% | 4% | 1.3% |
| 18 | 🇪🇨厄瓜多尔 | E | 1798 | +0.67 | +1.03 | 70% | 35% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1.3% |
| 19 | 🇧🇪比利时 | G | 1789 | +1.01 | +0.95 | 82% | 51% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 2.4% |
| 20 | 🇨🇮科特迪瓦 | E | 1788 | +0.58 | +0.81 | 96% | 46% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1.3% |
| 21 | 🇸🇳塞内加尔 | I | 1787 | +0.63 | +0.88 | 53% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0.7% |
| 22 | 🇺🇾乌拉圭 | H | 1782 | +0.82 | +1.10 | 82% | 39% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2.1% |
| 23 | 🇦🇹奥地利 | J | 1775 | +0.72 | +0.76 | 92% | 40% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1.1% |
| 24 | 🇨🇭瑞士 | B | 1770 | +0.82 | +0.83 | 80% | 43% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1.1% |
| 25 | 🇺🇸美国 | D | 1769 | +0.70 | +0.76 | 98% | 52% | 23% | 9% | 3% | 0.9% |
| 26 | 🇭🇷克罗地亚 | L | 1760 | +0.84 | +0.88 | 69% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 0.9% |
| 27 | 🇹🇷土耳其 | D | 1759 | +0.74 | +0.64 | 40% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.3% |
| 28 | 🇨🇦加拿大 | B | 1758 | +0.57 | +0.71 | 82% | 37% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0.5% |
| 29 | 🇪🇬埃及 | G | 1748 | +0.48 | +0.85 | 70% | 33% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0.5% |
| 30 | 🇵🇦巴拿马 | L | 1742 | +0.42 | +0.47 | 53% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 31 | 🇺🇿乌兹别克斯坦 | K | 1737 | +0.39 | +0.69 | 49% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.2% |
| 32 | 🏴苏格兰 | C | 1723 | +0.55 | +0.70 | 79% | 29% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0.2% |
| 33 | 🇨🇩刚果民主共和国 | K | 1710 | +0.31 | +0.65 | 51% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.2% |
| 34 | 🇵🇾巴拉圭 | D | 1688 | +0.50 | +0.83 | 31% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 35 | 🇸🇪瑞典 | F | 1688 | +0.79 | +0.72 | 95% | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% |
| 36 | 🇮🇶伊拉克 | I | 1684 | +0.25 | +0.60 | 35% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 37 | 🇨🇿捷克 | A | 1655 | +0.64 | +0.66 | 43% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 38 | 🇳🇿新西兰 | G | 1653 | +0.35 | +0.51 | 40% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 39 | 🇯🇴约旦 | J | 1651 | +0.35 | +0.43 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 40 | 🇸🇦沙特阿拉伯 | H | 1642 | +0.29 | +0.61 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 41 | 🇭🇹海地 | C | 1639 | +0.32 | +0.22 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 42 | 🇹🇳突尼斯 | F | 1625 | +0.42 | +0.71 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 43 | 🇨🇻佛得角 | H | 1622 | +0.16 | +0.53 | 48% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 44 | 🇿🇦南非 | A | 1620 | +0.27 | +0.62 | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 45 | 🇨🇼库拉索 | E | 1580 | +0.07 | +0.07 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 46 | 🇬🇭加纳 | L | 1579 | +0.39 | +0.58 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 47 | 🇶🇦卡塔尔 | B | 1568 | +0.38 | +0.32 | 50% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 48 | 🇧🇦波黑 | B | 1561 | +0.39 | +0.49 | 54% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
进攻/防守为 Dixon-Coles 对数空间参数，0 为全样本平均，数值越高越强。